What would a blog about movies be without predictions on the Academy Awards? Well, I guess it could focus on the artistry of the films themselves, but given my love of the Oscars, there was no way I was going to start a movie blog without throwing in my own Oscar predictions. Every year, like many others, I take part in a friendly family competition to see who can guess the most winners correctly in all the categories, and I usually don't do too bad, but I have never attempted to guess the nominations themselves. I have no idea how good I'll be compared to other bloggers, but I'm eager to see if all my Oscar obsessing will lead to superior prognosticating. Honestly, I don't think I will be all the good, but I'll try the best I can, so check out my predictions after the jump. For now, I am only going to make predictions in the major categories, but at some point I will make predictions for every category. I will list the nominees in order of how confident I am that they will be nominated, and then I will list a few possible substitutions that could sneak in. Finally, after the predictions, I will give some analysis on each of the categories. Here goes nothing!
Best Picture
- The Social Network
- The King's Speech
- True Grit
- 127 Hours
- Toy Story 3
- The Kids Are All Right
- Inception
- The Fighter
- Winter's Bone
- Black Swan
Best Actor
- Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
- James Franco in "127 Hours"
- Jessie Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
- Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
- Robert Duvall in "Get Low"
Best Actress
- Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
- Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
- Lesley Manville in "Another Year"
- Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"
- Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
Best Supporting Actor
- Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"
- Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
- Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
- Andrew Garfield in "The Social Network"
- Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
Best Supporting Actress
- Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
- Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
- Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
- Miranda Richardson in "Made in Dagenham"
- Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"
Best Director
- David Fincher for "The Social Network"
- Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech"
- Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit"
- Danny Boyle for "127 Hours"
- Mike Leigh for "Another Year"
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Aaron Sorkin for "The Social Network"
- Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit"
- Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy for "127 Hours"
- Michael Arndt for "Toy Story 3"
- Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, and Daniel Woodrell for "Winter's Bone"
Best Original Screenplay
- David Speidler for "The King's Speech"
- Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko for "The Kids Are All Right"
- Mike Leigh for "Another Year"
- Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy for "The Fighter"
- Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin for "Black Swan"
Best Picture: Analysis
I will start my analysis with the number one prize: Best Picture. In the Best Picture category, I would be willing to bet good money that the top six (up to "The Kids Are All Right") are going to be there when they announce the nominees. After that my confidence becomes a little shaky. Many Oscar pundits are 100% confident that "Inception" will be nominated for Best Picture, but I'm not so sure. Christopher Nolan has only been nominated for one Academy Award (a writing nomination for "Memento"), and just two years ago, when many of the same people where confident that "The Dark Knight" would be nominated for Best Picture, they turned out to be wrong. Now it is true there were only 5 nominees in 2008, but "The Dark Knight" was more generally revered than "Inception", so I wouldn't count it in just yet.
The first trailer for "The Fighter" came off as rather sappy, but the second trailer (which I haven't seen) is suppose to look much more like the contender people thought it would be. Even if the movie is a typical corny inspirational sports film, that's not necessarily bad (see "The Blind Side"), so I think its chances are relatively good.
"Winter's Bone" recently got a big jump when it received a bunch of Gotham nominations this week. Some people in blogosphere went a little crazy with this news, practically declaring it a lock for Best Picture, but I do think the film is building momentum. I also think the Academy is moving more and more to nominating this type of film, and "Winter's Bone" may just be the film to break through for the "realist" genre.
Finally, the last slot was the hardest to pick. The Academy has shown a penchant for nominating British films, and even with "The King's Speech", it is very likely that the Academy will nominate a second British film (especially "Another Year"). But I also think the Academy may be starting to move into a phase similar to the 1970's, where they were more open to nominating edgy films. This is why I put "Black Swan" in my last spot. Had there been ten nominees in 2008, I think Aronofsky's "The Wrestler" would have been nominated for Best Picture, but "Black Swan" looks to be much edgier than 'The Wrestler". Whether the film gets nominated will all depend on how good it is, but if it really pulls through, I think the buzz will be to hard to ignore.
There are some people who think "Shutter Island" can build a strong enough campaign to get a nomination. As much I would love this to happen (Shutter Island is my 2nd favorite film this year behind "The Social Network"), it just doesn't seem possible. Had the film received better reviews when it came out, then it might have a shot at Best Picture, but for a film that is set so firmly in its genre, the detractors of this film are too strong to overcome.
Best Actor: Analysis
Colin Firth, James Franco, and Jessie Eisenberg are clearly emerging as the three top candidates. As long as Jeff Bridges does a decent job in "True Grit", and the film is liked, he will be a lock as well. Now for some strange reason, Robert Duvall, who does his "crazy but kind, old guy" routine that has been his bread and butter for a few years now, has gotten a lot of buzz for his performance in the TV movie of the week "Get Low". As much as would to see a more qualified performance get the nomination, Robert Duvall is a beloved older actor, and the Academy loves to nominate beloved older actors. If "Blue Valentine" is well received though (despite the NC-17 rating), watch out for Ryan Gosling to replace one of the five.
Best Actress: Analysis
The Best Actress race is the Oscar race this year because, for the first time in over three decades, there appears to be five (or more) worthy nominees this year. Annette Bening and Natalie Portman appear to be pretty safe in terms of being nominated, and every person who sees "Another Year" always raves about Lesley Manville's performance. Plus, women in Mike Leigh's films have fared pretty well in getting nominations. For the last two slots, I think the Academy go for the newer actress in independent films, which is why I chose Michelle Williams and Jennifer Lawrence over people like Nicole Kidman and Naomi Watts., but even though I didn't quite fit her in, Sally Hawkins could easily steal a nomination if "Made in Dagenham" is well-received.
Best Supporting Actor: Analysis
This category appears pretty wide open, but its almost so wide open, I think that anyone who can generate buzz and hold for a while will likely get a nomination. With that in mind, Geoffrey Rush is a lock (probably for the win too). Christian Bale has been doing good work for awhile now, so if his performance is compelling and not too exaggerated, his nomination should be a cinch. I have a feeling "The Kids Are All Right" is pretty popular with the acting branch, so Mark Ruffalo should be good to go. With the popularity of "The Social Network", and his great performance, Andrew Garfield should be swept into one of the five nominations. For the last slot, its a total pot luck. Sam Rockwell has been assumed to be a nominee for "Conviction", but even though he has received great reviews, the buzz for the film, now that it has been released, has built to the momentous sound of a single hand clapping. In L.A. and New York, which is where most of the voters are, "Conviction" may be playing better, but if it isn't doing any better in those cities, than I don't see Rockwell getting in. "The Town" is another film that I suspect is liked by the acting branch, and nominating Jeremy Renner would be a great way to reward the film. As far as I can see though, anything could happen in this category, so look out for any surprise candidates.
Best Supporting Actress: Analysis
The Supporting Actress category appears to be as thin as ice this year, so my default position is to guess that the Academy will reward people in movies that they like. That's why I think Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, and Hailee Steinfeld will get nominations. Miranda Richardson has received a lot of praise for her performance in "Made in Dagenham", which means if the film goes over well with the acting branch (which I think it will), she should get nominated. For the fifth slot, even though I haven't seen the film, Jacki Weaver's role in "Animal Kingdom" seems like the type of role the Academy would lap up, so for now I will take her over two-time Best Supporting Actress winner Dianne Weist, but its to far out to tell how this category will shake out.
Best Director: Analysis
In the history of the Academy Awards, even years with just five Best Picture nominees, all but one of the Best Directors nominees are directors who directed one of the nominated Best Pictures. This has been the situation 51 out of the 82 years, and recently it has almost been automatic (it happenend in all but one year in the last decade). With ten Best Picture nominees especially, it almost guarenteed that the four top films of the year will have Best Director nominations. "The Social Network", "The King's Speech", "127 Hours, and "True Grit" (even though no one has seen the film yet) should be the top four films at the end of the year, which means Fincher, Hooper, Boyle, and the Coen brothers should all be nominated.
Now with ten nominated Best Pictures, it would seem certain that all of the nominees for Best Director would come from a nominated for Best Picture, but I don't think this is necessarily true if the fifth nominee is a director of non-American film. The Director's branch has a deep history of nominating directors from foreign films, even if the films had no chance of being nominated for Best Picture. There are plenty of historical examples, but even as recently as 2002 Fernando Meirelles was nominated for Best Director for "City of God". This is why I would bet a pretty penny (or dollars for donuts) that Mike Leigh will end up getting a nomination whether or not "Another Year" gets nominated for Best Picture. Leigh himself has been an Academy favorite when it comes to nominations, as he has already been nominated for six Oscars, so I wouldn't bet against him.
There are many fanboys who would call me the anti-Christ for not including Christopher Nolan as one of the five nominees, but the Academy has failed to prove that it admires Nolan's work. In 2008, even people who didn't like "The Dark Knight"'s chances still thought Nolan himself had a decent shot to be nominated, but when the day came and the nominations were announced, there was no Christopher Nolan, so until they actually nominate him, color me skeptical. If either "The Fighter" or "Black Swan" really takes off, there is a slight chance that Russel or Aronofsky might get an "overdue" vote, but as of now I don't foresee that happening.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Analysis
This category will likely be dominated by Best Picture nominees. "The Social Network", "True Grit", "127 Hours", and "Toy Story 3" look to be the front-runners in this category, and if Winter's Bone keeps its momentum going (especially if its nominated for Best Picture), it could easily round out the five nominees. If "Rabbit Hole" or "The Way Back" are popular though, this may be a way that the voters can recognize their achievements.
Best Original Screenplay: Analysis
I think this category will be a more competitive than its adapted brethren, but there are some clear leaders who will definitely be there on Oscar night. Namely, "The King's Speech", "The Kids Are All Right", and "Another Year". After that though, it's still up in the air. As of now, I favor the chances of "The Fighter" and "Black Swan" over a few others, but this is a category that I can foresee changing my mind a lot before all is said and done. "Inception" definitely has a good chance, but see the director analysis for my reservations about Nolan's chances (although I like his chance much better in this category). If "How Do You Know" is any good, than I can easily see James L. Brooks getting another Oscar nomination as well.
Well that's my take on the Oscar race as it stands right now. I will update my predictions periodically when I feel that there have been significant changes in the race, but in the meantime, let me know which films you feel will be nominated for the 2010 Oscars.
Christopher Lominac
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