Oscar Predictions: A Shot in the Dark

     

      I can hardly believe it, as it seems that we just wrapped up last year's awards season not all that long ago, but the start of the 2011 awards season is almost upon us. In less than a month's time, buzz from this and that festival will start to shape the landscape for the long trek of the moviedom awards rat race that culminates (usually in a pretty anti-climatic fashion) with the Academy Awards ceremony in late-February. Like the beginning of every sports season, now is the time when hope reigns supreme. Every film with an actor who, at least at one time, meant something, with a director who has shown signs of promise either now or in the past, with a writer who has contributed to some significant films, or even with a synopsis that sounds sufficiently "awards-baity", clings to the idea that they will be the breakout sensation of the year, and frankly, as far as we're concerned, why not. With the exception of the privileged few who have had the opportunity to see some the year's end films before the rest of us, we have no idea which films will be this year's "The King's Speech", and which films will be this year's "Hereafter". Obviously, for would-be Oscar prognosticators such as myself, this makes the task of predicting the Academy's taste nearly impossible at this point, but that's kind of fun of making guesses this far out. If something actually pans out, you look like a sooth-saying genius, and if you miss almost everything, no one thinks to hold you responsible. Only upside!

     In terms of film's that already released this year, so far there are only two that have received any significant Oscar buzz: Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" and Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris". For frequent readers of this blog, you'll know my extreme adoration for Malick's "The Tree of Life", as the only articles I have written as of late have been nothing but excuses to gush over the film. Having given it a perfect 10 in my review of the film, I have a hard time imagining any film released later in the year topping it, but even, so I am somewhat doubtful of the film successfully navigating the rough waters of the Oscar season and taking home the Academy's top prize. The film is too esoteric, too experimental, too untraditional to win the Oscar for Best Picture, no matter how deserving it is. The only way the film has any chance in hell of having a successful awards season is with heaps and heaps of critical praise, which so far it is mounting, receiving the Cannes film festival's Palme d'Or back in May and more recently, earning FIPRESCI's (an international film critics body) film of the year (calendar running from September-to-September, meaning it beat out film's such as "The Social Network"), but as David Fincher's excellent "The Social Network" proved last year, often times even all the praise in the world from the highest sources of film criticism aren't enough to budge the Academy's stubborn affection for traditional sentimentalist filmmaking.

     As for the other film, Woody Allen's most popular film in years (and I believe his highest-grossing film ever, not adjusting for inflation), "Midnight in Paris", I would bet strongly on it receiving a writing award (Allen has been nominated many times for this award even when the film itself did not receive support in other categories), but outside of this I'm skeptical of it's chances. It's a good film (probably my favorite Woody Allen film since 1999's "Sweet and Lowdown"), and I could very well see it ending up in my top ten list at the end of the year, but with the Academy's new rules in the Best Picture category, where the number of nominees in the category is variable and depends on how many film's receive over 5% first place votes, I have a hard time picturing the film getting an enormous amount of 1st place ballots, given the light and fun nature of the story.

  

     There were a few other films that came out of the Cannes film festival with a lot of positive buzz, but have yet to be tested against the larger movie going public, which means they have much to prove in terms of Oscar potential. In particular, Nicolas Winding Refn's "Drive", an 1980's-style action genre picture starring the man of 2011, Ryan Gosling, as a stunt driver who decides to take his unique talents to the bank robbing arena,  and Michel Hazanavicius' "The Artist", an almost completely silent black-and-white film about the end of the silent era of cinema, have received good words and may be end-of- the-year awards contenders. I especially like the chances of "The Artist",  for even though the fact that it is almost totally devoid of dialogue makes an unconventional choice for Academy members, the film is backed by the Weinstein Company, a crew that have proved themselves over the years to be the greatest Oscar campaigners in the history of the sport, including orchestrating two remarkable Best Picture victories with the 1998 shocker, "Shakespeare in Love", and last year's "The King's Speech".

     Finally, there are a lot of unseen prospects from big names that no one or very few have seen. Steven Spielberg, perhaps the biggest name in cinema, is coming with a one-two cinematic punch this holiday season, with the motion-capture blockbuster oriented "The Adventures of Tintin" and the more traditional drama-oriented "War Horse". Out of these two movies, "War Horse" is the much more obvious awards play, and while many are crowning this film as the frontrunner, I'm a bit skeptical, as I still remember 2005 when Spielberg's "Munich" started out in this position only to fall behind other films after the film failed to live up to the buzz.

     Clint Eastwood may yet again be a major player at the end of the year with his bio-pic of the man who created the FBI, "J. Edgar". The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, which is definitely a plus for the film, and the script is written by the Oscar-winning writer of "Milk", probably another good sign, but the last few Eastwood films have fizzled out when it counted, so this might not be the slam dunk that it should be. 

     Martin Scorsese is trying his hand at his first ever family-friendly film, but from the trailer and the given source material, it doesn't exactly shine with Oscar potential. George Clooney, the actor/director who has been very popular with Hollywood and the Academy over the last few years is coming out with a political thriller called "The Ides of March". With an amazing cast and attractive subject matter for Academy voters, the film is definitely one to keep an eye on. Also, Stephen Daldry, who inexplicably managed to be nominated for an Oscar for every film he has directed, looks to make it 4 for 4 with a nomination for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", a film based on a popular book that tangential touches on 9/11, with a script written by Eric Roth ("Forrest Gump" and "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"). 

     Some other would-be contenders to watch for include Alexander Payne's "The Descendants", Tomas Alfredson's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" (which has an amazingly cool trailer), Bennett Miller's "Moneyball", David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method", Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zpp", Tate Taylor's "The Help", Roman Polanski's "Carnage", Ralph Fiennes "Coriolanus", David Fincher's "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", and Jason Reitman's "Young Adult".

     Well, that's it for now in terms of analysis. It's time to man up and make some actual predictions. Here goes nothing.

Best Picture

1. "The Artist"
2. "The Ides of March"
3. "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
4. "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
5. "J. Edgar"
6. "The Tree of Life"
7. "War Horse"

     Other Possibilities:

     8. "The Descendants"

     9. "The Help"

     10. "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

     11. "Moneyball"

     12. "Drive"

     13. "Young Adult"

     14. "Carnage"

     15. "W.E."

     16. "Martha Marcy May Marlene"

     17. "Midnight in Paris"

     18. "A Dangerous Method"

     19. "Warrior"

Best Director

1. George Clooney for "The Ides of March"
2. Tomas Alfredson for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
3. Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist"
4. Terrence Malick for "The Tree of Life"
5. Stephen Daldry for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

     Other Possibilities 

     6.  Clint Eastwood for "J. Edgar"

     7. Steven Spielberg for "War Horse"

     8. Alexander Payne for "The Descendants"

     9. David Fincher for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

     10. Bennett Miller for "Moneyball"

     11. Nicolas Winding Refn for "Drive"

     12. Tate Taylor for "The Help"

     13. Roman Polanski for "Carnage"

     14. Jason Reitman for "Young Adult"

     15. Madonna for "W.E."

     16. Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris"

     17.  David Cronenberg for "A Dangerous Method"

Best Actor

1. Jean Dujardin for "The Artist"
2. Leonardo DiCaprio for "J. Edgar"
3. George Clooney for "The Descendants"
4. Gary Oldman for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
5. Ryan Gosling for "The Ides of March"

     Other Possibilities

     6. Michael Shannon for "Take Shelter"

     7. Brad Pitt for "Moneyball"

     8. Michael Fassbinder for "A Dangerous Method"

     9. Tom Hardy for "Warrior"

     10. Christoph Waltz for "Carnage"

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
2. Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
3. Viola Davis in "The Help"
4. Tilda Swinton in "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
5. Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"

     Other Possibilities 

     6. Kate Winslet in "Carnage"

     7. Charlize Theron in "Young Adult"

     8. Felicity Jones in "Like Crazy"

     9. Kirsten Dunst in "Melancholia"

     10. Elizabeth Olsen in "Martha Marcy May Marlene"

     11. Jodie Foster in "Carnage"

     12. Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

     13. Rachel Weisz in "The Whistleblower"

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Ides of March"
3. Niels Arestrup in "War Horse"
4. Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
5. Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"

     Other Possibilities 

     6. Patton Oswalt in "Young Adult"

     7. Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"

     8. Viggo Mortensen in "A Dangerous Mind'

     9. George Clooney in "The Ides of March"

     10. Brad Pitt in "The Tree of Life"

     11. Albert Brooks in "Drive"

     12. Jim Broadbent in "The Iron Lady"

     13. Tom Hanks in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

     14. Armie Hammer in "J. Edgar"

     15. Colin Firth in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

     16. Tom Hardy in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

     17. John Hawkes in "Martha Marcy May Marlene"

Best Supporting Actress

1. Vanessa Redgrave in "Coriolanus"
2. Octavia Spencer in "The Help"
3. Keira Knightley in "A Dangerous Method"
4. Sandra Bullock in "Extremely Dangerous and Incredibly Close"
5. Naomi Watts in "J. Edgar"

     Other Possibilities 

     6. Bryce Dallas Howard in "The Help"

     7. Shailene Woodley in "The Descendants"

     8. Jessica Chastain in "The Help"

     9. Andrea Riseborough in "W.E."

     10. Evan Rachel Wood in "The Ides of March"

     11. Judi Dench in "My Week with Marilyn"

     12. Anna Kendrick in "50/50"

   Best Adapted Screenplay

1. George Clooney and Grant Heslov for "The Ides of March"
2. Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
3. Eric Roth for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
4. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne and Jim Rash for "The Descendants"
5. Richard Curtis and Lee Hall for "War Horse"

     Other Possibilities

     6. Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian for "Moneyball"

     7. Tate Taylor for "The Help"

     8. Roman Polanski and Yasmina Reza for "Carnage"

     9. Christopher Hampton for "A Dangerous Method"

     10. John Banville and Glenn Close for "Albert Nobbs"

     11. Steve Zaillian for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

     12. Cameron Crowe and Aline Brosh McKenna for "We Bought a Zoo"

     13. Joe Cornish, Steven Moffat and Edgar Wright for "The Adventures of Tintin"

Best Original Screenplay

1. Dustin Lance Black for "J. Edgar"
2. Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist"
3. Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris"
4. Diablo Cody for "Young Adult"
5. Sean Durkin for "Martha Marcy May Marlene"

     Other Possibilities

     6. Mike Mills for "Beginners"

     7. Jeff Nichols for "Take Shelter"

     8. Drake Doremus and Ben York Jones for "Like Crazy"

     9. Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig for "Bridesmaids"

     10. Roger L. Simon and Eric Eason for "A Better Life"

     11. Will Reiser for "50/50"

     12. Cliff Dorfman, Gavin O’Connor and Anthony Tambakis for "Warrior"

     13. James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, and Gore Verbinski for "Rango"

     14. Terence Malick for "The Tree of Life"

     15. Thomas McCarthy and Joe Tibani for "Win Win"

     16. Lars Von Trier for "Melancholia"