Predicting the Nominees: Everything in its Right Place

     Back in late October when I first started this blog, I took a stab at predicting this year's Oscar nominations (click here to check them out). Now that the nominations are finally going to be upon us tomorrow, I thought I would give a more informed (but not necessarily more accurate) guess at what the Academy will deem award worthy this year. Last time I only predicted the "big 8" (Picture, Director, the four acting awards, and the two writing awards), but this time, despite my utter lack of expertise in some categories, I will be attempting to predict every single category. First, I will give brief analysis on the bigger categories and then, if your just interested in taking a quick look through the predictions, at the bottom of the article I will list my complete 2010 Academy Award predictions. Also note, the film or person ranked number one on my predictions will be the person that I am expecting to win the category as of now, but after the nominations come out and before Oscar night, I will make official winner predictions. Here goes nothing!


     First I will start out with the big kahuna of all the awards: Best Picture. In this category, there are basically eight films that are locked in, with the eight films being "The Social Network", "The King's Speech", "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "The Kids Are Alright", "Inception", "Toy Story 3", and "True Grit". After these eight films, there are basically three films battling it out for two spots, and these three films are "127 Hours", "The Town", and "Winter's Bone". Now unfortunately, I am getting the sickening feeling that, despite how good "127 Hours" is (read my review here), the fact that it is about a man who amputates his own arm may mean too many cowardly squeamish members of the academy may not have even seen the film (as well as the movie going public apparently, because its box office receipts were dismal) and therefore will miss a Best Picture nomination. Weak stomached Academy members will probably prefer the crowd pleasing, stereo-typical derivative "The Town" (read my review here) instead, and unlike some Oscar pundits, I am expecting the Academy members to respond strongly to "Winter's Bone" (who has the likes of Martin Scorsese and last year's Best Director, Katherine Bigelow campaigning for it), so my head would tell me to go with "The Town" and "Winter's Bone", but I am going with my heart and hoping for the best with "127 Hours" and "Winter's Bone".

     The Best Director category is perhaps the most intriguing category of the year with so many big names in the race. The top 3 films in the race, "The Social Network", "The King's Speech", and "Black Swan" are for sure to receive complementary Best Director nominations for David Fincher, Tom Hooper, and Darren Aronofsky respectively. The last two slots are generally assumed to belong to David O. Russell ("The Fighter") and Christopher Nolan ("Inception"), but they are still up in the air to some extent, with Ethan and Joel Coen ("True Grit") and Danny Boyle ("127 Hours") standing in the wings and threatening to take one of their spots. After shunning Nolan for his best film, "The Dark Knight" just two years ago, I'm still skeptical that his fanbase is very large within the Academy, so I'm going to go with O. Russell and the Coen Brothers for the last two slots. I am aware though that the academy loves to make up for past wrongs by nominating people for things that may or may not have been award worthy, so guilty voters may use this opportunity to apologize to Nolan (not that I don't think he deserves it on merit).

     For Best Actor, I basically see one spot open (with four slots being taken by Colin Firth in "The King's Speech", Jessie Eisenberg in "The Social Network", James Franco in "127 Hours", Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"). There are a few choices for the Academy to fill the last spot. The sentimental (and incorrect) choice for Academy members would be the stereo-typical old man performance given by Robert Duvall in "Get Low". Traditionally, the Academy loves to nominate Hollywood veterans even in sub-par performances, but I am not sure that this is as true as it once was. If they want to look elsewhere, Ryan Gosling is probably the most well reviewed performance for his work in "Blue Valentine". Javier Bardem has supposedly been rising as of late with the help of Hollywood heavyweights such as Julie Roberts behind him for his performance in the foreign film "Biutiful". Finally, Mark Wahlberg's relatively understated, and underrated performance in "The Fighter" could be nominated as a show of love for that film. It's a tough choice, but in the end I am going to go with Gosling.

     In the Best Actress category, there are three performances that I would bet my life on to get nominations: Natalie Portman in "Black Swan", Annette Bening in "The Kids Are Alright", and Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone". After that, there are a few contenders that I could see getting there names called on early tomorrow morning. Even though the general consensus is that getting both Bening and Julianne Moore nominated for "The Kids Are Alright" was too tough a task, I think the film is one that is probably popular in the Actor's branch, and Julianne Moore has had her share of nominations before (although she did miss out last year in the Best Supporting Actress category for her performance in "A Single Man"), so I see her slipping in. As with her costar Gosling, Michelle Williams performance in "Blue Valentine" is probably the best reviewed, but its hard to know if enough people saw the film in this competitive category. Nicole Kidman is always a popular choice, and it would be no surprise to see her nominated for "Rabbit Hole", but since her heights in the early 2000's, her stature has fallen somewhat and this might not be the shoe-in many are predicting. Early in the year, it seemed like Lesley Manville's performance in the British film "Another Year" would be in the race, but despite the online enthusiasm, the film has just never seemed to take off like many were expecting, so who knows how that will effect Manville. Finally, Hillary Swank still carries some buzz for "Conviction", but no one saw (and those that did didn't even really like) the movie, so I don't see her get nominated. It's a tough call, but I am going to go with Michelle Williams for the fifth spot.

     Best Supporting Actor looks to have three sure-bets: Christian Bale for "The Fighter",  Geoffrey Rush for "The King's Speech", and Mark Ruffalo for "The Kids Are Alright". For the last two slots, it looks like Jeremy Renner for "The Town", which is something I called back in October when few people were predicting it (just to pat my self on the back a bit), and Andrew Garfield in "The Social Network" will likely fill them in. The big potential upset is John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone", which is something I have been anticipating to predict for awhile, but I just can't see any of the five previous names being dropped, so I guess I will play it safe. If it were up to me, John Hawkes would not only be nominated, he would win the award, so I would love to be wrong about this, but I just don't see it happening. Also, we can't really count out Matt Damon in "True Grit" or Justin Timberlake in "The Social Network". This is especially true in Damon's case, since he somehow managed to get nominated for his nothing performance in "Invictus" last year.

     There is basically one free spot left in the Best Supporting Actress category. Melissa Leo in "The Fighter", Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech", Amy Adams in "The Fighter", and Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit" should all hear there names called when it comes time. The last spot is where it gets interesting. Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom", a small Australian film, has probably got the best reviews, but the question is whether or not the film is too small for enough Academy members to have actually seen it in order to vote for her. Mila Kunis in "Black Swan" (my favorite at this point) also has a decent chance at the spot, especially if members want to show their love for the film, but the fact that Barbara Hershey could also be nominated from the same film may counteract each other so to speak, leave them both empty handed come tomorrow morning. Also, Lesley Manville in "Another Year", could end up being nominated in this category, even though for most of the awards season they have been campaigning her for the lead. I'm going to say enough members saw "Animal Kingdom" and Jacki Weaver will be nominated.

     I feel like the Writing- Adapted Screenplay category is pretty much set. Aaron Sorkin for "The Social Network" is not only going to be nominated, he will definitely win this award on Oscar night. The Coen Brothers are almost always a lock for this category, and that will be true this year with "True Grit". Michael Arndt for "Toy Story 3" is a safe bet as well, and I am pretty confident about Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy for "127 Hours" and Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini for "Winter's Bone". If there is an upset, look for Roman Polanski and Robert Harris for "The Ghost Writer" or Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, and Aaron Stockard for "The Town".

     Finally, in the Writing-Original Screenplay category, there are six films fighting for the five slots. David Seidler for "The King's Speech" is the likely winner, so he will definitely be nominated, and the possible up set winners, Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg for "The Kids Are Alright", will also be nominated. Christopher Nolan for "Inception" and Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, and John J. McLaughlin for "Black Swan" are also pretty secure. In the last spot, I am going to favor Mike Leigh for "Another Year" despite the film's free-fall in momentum because the writers branch has shown a lot of love for Leigh's films in the past, but the safer (and probably smarter) bet is to go with Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy for "The Fighter", which will definitely be a Best Picture nominee.

2010 Oscar Predictions

Picture

1. "The Social Network"
2. "The King's Speech"
3. "Black Swan"
4. "The Fighter"
5. "The Kids Are Alright"
6. "Inception"
7. "Toy Story 3"
8. "True Grit"
9. "Winter's Bone"
10. "127 Hours"

     Possible alternatives: "The Town", "Shutter Island"

Director

1. David Fincher for "The Social Network"
2. Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech"
3. Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan"
4. David O. Russell for "The Fighter"
5. Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit"

     Possible alternatives: Christopher Nolan for "Inception", Danny Boyle for "127 Hours"

Actor

1. Colin Firth for "The King's Speech"
2. Jessie Eisenberg for "The Social Network"
3. James Franco for "127 Hours"
4. Jeff Bridges for "True Grit"
5. Ryan Gosling for "Blue Valentine"

     Possible alternatives: Javier Bardem for "Biutiful', Robert Duvall for "Get Low", Mark Wahlberg for "The Fighter"

Actress

1. Natalie Portman for "Black Swan"
2. Annette Bening for "The Kids Are Alright"
3. Jennifer Lawrence for "Winter's Bone"
4. Julianne Moore for "The Kids Are Alright"
5. Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine"

     Possible alternatives: Nicole Kidman for "Rabbit Hole", Lesley Manville "Another Year"

Supporting Actor

1. Christian Bale for "The Fighter"
2. Geoffrey Rush for "The King's Speech"
3. Mark Ruffalo for "The Kids Are Alright"
4. Jeremy Renner for "The Town"
5. Andrew Garfield for "The Social Network"

     Possible alternatives: John Hawkes for "Winter's Bone", Matt Damon for "True Grit", Justin Timberlake for "The Social Network"

Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo for "The Fighter"
2. Helena Bonham Carter for "The King's Speech"
3. Amy Adams for "The Fighter"
4. Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit"
5. Jacki Weaver for "Animal Kingdom"

     Possible alternatives: Mila Kunis for "Black Swan", Lesley Manville for "Another Year", Barbara Hershey for "Black Swan"

Adapted Screenplay

1. Aaron Sorkin for "The Social Network"
2. Michael Arndt for "Toy Story 3"
3. Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit"
4. Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle for "127 Hours"
5. Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini for "Winter's Bone"

     Possible alternatives: Roman Polanski and Robert Harris for "The Ghost Writer", Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, and Aaron Stockard for "The Town"

Original Screenplay

1. David Seidler for "The King's Speech"
2. Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg for "The Kids Are Alright"
3. Christopher Nolan for "Inception"
4. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, and John J. McLaughlin for "Black Swan"
5. Mike Leigh for "Another Year"

     Possible alternatives: Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy for "The Fighter" 

Art Direction

1. "Alice in Wonderland"
2. "Inception"
3. "The King's Speech"
4. "True Grit"
5. "Shutter Island"

     Possible alternatives: "TRON Legacy", "Black Swan", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 1", "Robin Hood"

Cinematography

1. "Inception"
2. "Black Swan"
3. "The Social Network"
4. "True Grit"
5. "The King's Speech"

     Possible alternatives: "127 Hours", "Shutter Island"

Costume Design

1. "Alice in Wonderland"
2. "The King's Speech"
3. "Burlesque"
4. "The Tempest"
5. "True Grit"

      Possible alternatives: "Robin Hood", "Black Swan", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"

Film Editing

1. "The Social Network"
2. "The King's Speech"
3. "Black Swan"
4. "The Fighter"
5. "127 Hours"

     Possible alternatives: "Inception", "Shutter Island", "True Grit"

Makeup

1. "Alice in Wonderland"
2. "The Wolfman"
3. "Barney's Version"

      Possible alternatives: "The Way Back", "The Fighter"

Original Score

1. "The Social Network"
2. "Inception"
3. "The King's Speech"
4. "127 Hours"
5. "The Ghost Writer"

     Possible alternatives: "Alice in Wonderland", "How to Train Your Dragon", "Never Let Me Go", "TRON Legacy"

Original Song

1. "I See the Light" from "Tangled"
2. "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3"
3. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from "Burlesque"
4. "Shine" from "Waiting for Superman"
5. "If I Rise" from "127 Hours"

     Possible alternatives: "Bound to You" from "Burlesque",  "Coming Home" from "Country Strong"

Sound Editing

1. "Inception"
2. "TRON Legacy"
3. "Black Swan"
4. "True Grit"
5. "How To Train Your Dragon"

     Possible alternatives: "Salt", "Toy Story 3", "Iron Man 2"

Sound Mixing

1. "Inception"
2. "Black Swan"
3. "TRON Legacy"
4. "Shutter Island"
5. "Unstoppable"

     Possible alternatives: "True Grit", "Salt", "The Social Network", "127 Hours"

Visual Effects 

1. "TRON Legacy"
2. "Inception"
3. "Alice in Wonderland"
4. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 1"
5. "Iron Man 2"

     Possible alternatives: "Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World", "Hereafter"

Animated Feature

1. "Toy Story 3"
2. "How to Train Your Dragon"
3. "Tangled"

     Possible alternatives: "The Illusionist", "Despicable Me"

Documentary Feature

1. "Inside Job"
2. "Waiting for Superman"
3. "Restrepo"
4. "Waste Land"
5. "The Tillman Story"

     Possible alternatives: "Gas Land", "Exit Through the Gift Shop"

Foreign Language Film

1. "In a Better World" (Denmark)
2. "Incendies" (Canada)
3. "Life, Above All" (South Africa)
4. "Outside the Law" (Algeria)
5. "Biutiful" (Mexico)

     Possible alternatives: "Simple Simon" (Sweden), "Even the Rain" (Spain)